World of Warcraft's Inevitable Decline: What's an Azerothian to Do?
As of the moment of this writing, Blizzard’s World of Warcraft has been live for 8 years, 7 months, and some days. In this time, there have been two different American Presidents, three different British Prime Ministers, eight Japanese Prime Ministers (including one who pulled a Grover Cleveland on Japan), and three papacies. The 10th planet was officially discovered, we landed a plutonium-powered rover on Mars, and we have 3D printers. Doctor Who was revived, Harry Potter was completed (both in print and on the silver screen), and Disney furthered their path towards world domination with the acquisition of both Marvel and LucasFilm. Oh, and four different expansions on the record-setting MMO (massively multiplayer online game) have been released. At its peak, the game boasted over 12 million subscribers.
Though, inevitability will have its way — empires fall. The game has seen a steady decrease in sales and subscriptions (a princely monthly fee of $14.99) aside from a swell after the release of the most recent expansion: The Mists of Pandaria. The company had especially bleak news coming out of the first quarter of 2013- they are down to 8.3 million subscribers. Now, to be fair, that still leaves us with the relative approximate populations of Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and Utah, but it is a good 14% dip- or about $55.4 million in subscription revenue monthly. So, is this a, pardon the terrible pun, Cataclysm-ic event for the company? Perhaps. Though some would argue that, while the game is not as popular as it used to be, the company still uses it as its show pony and it brings in over $120 million a month. Yes, this figure is certainly more than, say, the city of Detroit is looking to pull in over the next year, but it’s just one of many indicators in the inevitable decline of the World that is Warcraft.
Is the game obsolete?
Eight years in the world of computers is an eon. Over the three versions intended for personal private use, Microsoft has put out an update to Windows at a rate of about one every two and a half years, and that’s just software. The machines are being built better, faster, and cooler (and I mean cooler in a literal sense with various new forms of in-case cooling). There are several varying opinions in research as to when is the best time to upgrade your gaming PC, but I offer this further bit for perspective: I’ve built two computers and used two others for my personal use on WoW, and I didn’t start playing the game until the end of “vanilla” (pre-expansion World of Warcraft). As a matter of fact, it’s about time for a new upgrade on my current rig. Now, I’m harping on this time thing for a reason. If you compare the graphics at the highest end of the spectrum in Azeroth (the land of the World of Warcraft), it is found to be quite lacking. I realize this is an objective opinion, but I give the following example for proof.
If you’ve been watching The Grid, you know Dragon Age: Inquisition runs on the Frostbite 3 engine. This particular game engine is intended for use on both consoles and PC. The system is used, currently, exclusively by EA; however, there are many other development systems on the market today. Yet, the idea of a redevelop project on WoW is hushed rumors from people with better memories than I. As a matter of fact, the only blue post (Blizzard employee response on the official forums) I could find on the matter is dated April of 2012.
Now, before I get the inevitable “but updating a game is HARD WORK,” this is an obvious point. So is an update in any other industry. For example, one may find their bank with a different type of “basic” checking account every few years. Though it may not seem like something which would cost much to the company, there are many steps involving market research, legalities, and marketing which make up the update to the accounts. In the interest of the example, people might not see why the bank has to update the account in the first place, but many banks will do this on a consistent basis in order to further meet the needs of their customers and stay current with the market. After all, if your bank had the same account types as they did as little as the magic eight years ago, you may not be able to get a debit card — and most certainly not for free. Updates, and considerable ones, are a requirement to avoid obsoletion. Graphics are potentially the most rewarding thing to update within the gaming world. Am I making the picture clear enough?
Will WoW stay on top?
The MMO world is about to become saturated. Bethesda Softworks has Elder Scrolls Online due out next Spring, Square Enix just wrapped up Beta 3 testing on Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn, Dungeons & Dragons: Neverwinter was recently released by Cryptic Studios, and Behaviour Interactive recently acquired rights to make a Warhammer 40,000 game (titled Warhammer 40,000: Eternal Crusade). There have been many games over the years poised to take over the audience of WoW, although none have yet achieved this task. But, with the game heading in a downward motion, who can honestly predict if the game can hold its current position at the top of the charts? Already MMOs have moved to the console front with the success of games such as DC Universe Online, and with it a large portion of gamers with a preference towards the console. And while Warcraft lore is extensive, the fandom is not the same group it was ten years ago when WoW was in the development stage. With each new game a chunk of the market is relocated from Azeroth to distant places such as Tamriel, Neverwinter, and Gotham City. It poses the question: is not the best way to destroy the mighty but a little bit at a time?
What can be done?
This is a question left best to business analyst types, but there are several suggestions which come to mind. One such motion taking the table? The notion to turn the subscription-based MMO into a free-to-play game. After the news was confirmed Blizzard was, indeed, testing out a real money store in-game, Forbes brought up the topic again with hints pointing towards the idea. While not strictly “free” in a world where microtransactions help assist the endgame player, it would certainly create a scenario used by such games as the popular Riot Games title League of Legends- one in which the player has absolute freedom about what they choose to purchase.
Another option raised for the future was the shift to the next-gen MMO project codenamed “Titan.” The game may poise itself to take over the share of the market currently held by the Warcraft game, but it’s unfortunately much too soon to speculate — especially if Blizzard continues to make “large design and technology changes.” The earliest date on the launch of the Titan project is 2016.
Perhaps the most appropriate response in the attempt to stem the bleeding is to appeal to those who remain loyal to Azeroth. As discussed on Activision Blizzard’s First Quarter 2013 Results Conference Call (the transcript of which can be found over at Seeking Alpha), the company intends to “release new content more frequently to keep […] players engaged longer and make it easier for lapsed players to come back into the game.” As of right now, in the face of the losses, the company still “believe(s) in the long-term value of (the) franchise” and “will continue to commit substantial resources to World of Warcraft.” Thus far, they’ve been keeping with the statement in the stream of patch releases both to the PTR (Public Test Realm) and the game itself. Whether or not this is to continue, only time will tell.
What’s an Azerothian to do?
For one, don’t give up on Blizzard just yet. There’s bound to be at least one more expansion to eat away at your hard-earned money and sanity, with many fingers crossed this will include playable Murlocs. Regardless of what happens to the game in the future, there’s always that which you’ve learned from your time on the game. For me, the realization actualizes in the friendships I’ve acquired over the years. I’m also waiting for that moment in time in which FigurePrints are available with hunter pets, and you’d better believe my dear Andelyse and Shriva will take a place on my mantle.
Of course, another item currently in the works is the World of Warcraft movie. A lot of speculation and rumor is floating about this project, currently under the directorial guidance of Duncan Jones. It’s listed as Warcraft with a 2015 release date on IMDb, but such information is loose and can often be incorrect or changed. Guests at San Diego Comic-Con managed to luck out on a glimpse of the teaser trailer, but (in an odd twist) it’s not being shown on the internet… yet.
So, until then (and perhaps until the final downfall), take comfort in your fellow gamers. We’re an awesome bunch, if a bit goofy.
[youtube=http://youtu.be/8nk9XoiWGQg]
